I was at a conference yesterday where a leading economist
talked about the global economic forecasts and specifically about the UK.
When he got to the UK, he started talking about which sectors
were expanding and succeeding the most, citing the telecommunication, transport
and logistics areas as those with the greatest opportunity.
In other words, people doing business on the internet and
ordering stuff for delivery to the home or office.
It certainly seems to be true when you look at the
stats. For example, the online retail
markets are growing rapidly, with 12%+ growth forecast for the next year (double-click
chart for larger image).
Source: Verdict Research
But this belies another story, which is that internet
retailing is now maturing, as year-on-year growth accelerates at a decelerating
rate .
Source: Verdict Research
And, as the internet matures, the old retail space withers
and dies.
This has been illustrated well by the demise of our
oldest music retailer (HMV), camera retailer (Jessops), electronics retailer (Comet) and entertainment retailer (Blockbuster) …
All of these bankruptcies were announced in just the past month. Meanwhile, Amazon and iTunes march onwards and upwards.
This change in high street to home has been inevitable and
obvious for years, with many predicting the demise of anything that can be
electronified.
This is why travel agents, book shops and more have
disappeared en masse for the past decade in most economies (just look at
Borders and Tower Records).
That’s why my High Street stores are empty, shut down,
closing, dead …
It just makes me wonder why the leaders of these retailers didn't get it earlier and switch their business models from high street to home, from instore to online?
They must have been mad.
And if you accept everything I’ve written above, then why
the hell are retail banks still operating and even expanding their retail store footprint?
Source: This is money
Chris M Skinner
Chris Skinner is best known as an independent commentator on the financial markets through his blog, TheFinanser.com, as author of the bestselling book Digital Bank, and Chair of the European networking forum the Financial Services Club. He has been voted one of the most influential people in banking by The Financial Brand (as well as one of the best blogs), a FinTech Titan (Next Bank), one of the Fintech Leaders you need to follow (City AM, Deluxe and Jax Finance), as well as one of the Top 40 most influential people in financial technology by the Wall Street Journal's Financial News. To learn more click here...